Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 19.224660 21.901628 24.779791 28.099920 31.819678 35.853998 40.556070
2025-02-02 15.494436 19.183274 23.448932 28.728014 35.066374 42.411244 51.545570
2025-02-09 13.239152 17.298780 22.218393 28.585368 36.570070 46.211667 58.690968
2025-02-16 11.387148 15.620396 20.970751 28.176560 37.567270 49.322943 65.076236
2025-02-23 10.172941 14.554980 20.297790 28.300276 39.075236 52.980244 72.164178
2025-03-02 9.249342 13.752239 19.851118 28.615512 40.767204 56.880164 79.692088
2025-03-09 8.398141 12.944118 19.293395 28.681736 42.054686 60.233380 86.583441
2025-03-16 7.568064 12.073725 18.553853 28.398705 42.783790 62.800209 92.460216
2025-03-23 7.000549 11.529997 18.222647 28.645956 44.234331 66.389664 99.879393
2025-03-30 6.665617 11.304322 18.329883 29.521908 46.616275 71.381279 109.492259
2025-04-06 6.094775 10.651851 17.730765 29.270930 47.278195 73.875388 115.551492
2025-04-13 5.332125 9.617892 16.454052 27.869395 46.081294 73.523334 117.329045
2025-04-20 5.074817 9.411501 16.491355 28.564044 48.199356 78.302001 127.130492
2025-04-27 4.842584 9.227467 16.549520 29.291353 50.403870 83.313530 137.520861
2025-05-04 4.467281 8.755974 16.087325 29.116089 51.121407 86.012712 144.393810
2025-05-11 4.089496 8.244838 15.516164 28.710357 51.420841 88.040064 150.264380
2025-05-18 3.833380 7.934183 15.267423 28.832835 52.592860 91.499523 158.550235
2025-05-25 3.629546 7.703592 15.141378 29.154601 54.107709 95.567218 167.973458
2025-06-01 3.405804 7.413993 14.885171 29.221572 55.173759 98.921317 176.336262
2025-06-08 3.153253 7.044168 14.451995 28.933828 55.589597 101.183601 182.942351
2025-06-15 2.990750 6.842130 14.318555 29.185266 56.967891 105.123386 192.518582
2025-06-22 2.916598 6.816876 14.521315 30.076193 59.540659 111.216455 206.004573
2025-06-29 2.715174 6.503751 14.138112 29.820928 59.987658 113.605922 213.148169